SAP Knowledge Base Article - Preview

3749067 - High forecast values for intermittent demand when using croston method

Symptom

  • The forecast values are very high although historical pattern shows a lot of lower intermittent demand.
  • The system weights the most recent high demand occurrences in history more.


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Environment

SAP Supply Chain Management (SCM)
SAP Advanced Planning and Optimization (SCM-APO)
SAP Enhancement package for SAP Supply Chain Management

Product

SAP Advanced Planning and Optimization all versions ; SAP Supply Chain Management all versions ; SAP enhancement package for SAP Supply Chain Management all versions

Keywords

overforecasting, alpha, smoothing factor, exponential smoothing, zero-demand periods, demand planning, statistical forecasting, parameter tuning, alpha equals 1, intermittent series, forecast profile, bias , KBA , SCM-APO-FCS-STF , Statistical Forecasting , Problem

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